Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#66
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.5%
#1 Seed 8.1% 8.5% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 16.6% 17.3% 4.4%
Top 4 Seed 32.4% 33.7% 10.7%
Top 6 Seed 46.4% 48.1% 18.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.9% 71.7% 39.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.4% 68.3% 37.3%
Average Seed 5.4 5.3 7.0
.500 or above 76.6% 78.5% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 74.7% 50.0%
Conference Champion 11.9% 12.4% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.5% 5.6%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
First Round67.9% 69.7% 37.5%
Second Round50.0% 51.6% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen28.2% 29.1% 11.7%
Elite Eight14.7% 15.2% 5.4%
Final Four7.3% 7.6% 2.1%
Championship Game3.6% 3.8% 1.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.6%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 42 - 016 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 162   College of Charleston W 82-65 94%    
  Nov 30, 2020 102   UNLV W 80-71 80%    
  Dec 08, 2020 9   @ Iowa L 79-84 33%    
  Dec 12, 2020 215   Elon W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 19, 2020 17   Ohio St. L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 22, 2020 48   @ North Carolina St. W 79-78 53%    
  Dec 29, 2020 63   @ Georgia Tech W 77-75 55%    
  Jan 02, 2021 35   Syracuse W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 05, 2021 43   @ Miami (FL) W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 09, 2021 49   Clemson W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 16, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 19, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 85-73 85%    
  Jan 23, 2021 48   North Carolina St. W 82-75 71%    
  Jan 26, 2021 87   @ Pittsburgh W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 30, 2021 70   Notre Dame W 82-73 76%    
  Feb 02, 2021 49   @ Clemson W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 06, 2021 5   @ Duke L 78-84 30%    
  Feb 08, 2021 43   Miami (FL) W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 13, 2021 6   @ Virginia L 59-65 32%    
  Feb 16, 2021 56   Virginia Tech W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 20, 2021 26   Louisville W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 23, 2021 101   @ Boston College W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 27, 2021 16   Florida St. W 79-77 58%    
  Mar 01, 2021 35   @ Syracuse L 76-77 48%    
  Mar 06, 2021 5   Duke L 80-81 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.4 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.1 2.7 0.8 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.9 4.9 6.5 8.0 8.7 10.1 10.9 10.2 9.3 8.7 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 98.1% 1.3    1.2 0.1
18-2 91.9% 2.4    2.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 71.9% 3.0    2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 43.0% 2.9    1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.1% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 7.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 56.7% 43.3% 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.2% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.6 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.7% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.3 1.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.7% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 3.2 0.8 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 4.3 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.2% 99.6% 9.6% 90.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 10.9% 97.0% 6.3% 90.7% 7.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.8%
11-9 10.1% 83.0% 3.6% 79.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 82.3%
10-10 8.7% 58.9% 2.2% 56.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 58.0%
9-11 8.0% 23.3% 1.7% 21.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 22.0%
8-12 6.5% 5.4% 1.0% 4.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 4.5%
7-13 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.5%
6-14 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.3%
5-15 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.9% 10.4% 59.5% 5.4 8.1 8.5 7.8 8.0 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 30.1 66.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0